Shifting Expectations

By Damian Radcliffe

There’s a risk that we all think super-fast broadband is a “good thing” (copyright Sellar and Yeatman), and so Kate Bevan is right to ask in The Guardian today whether we actually need connections at 50 Mbps or more.

Arguably, based on current consumption patterns the answer for most people is "no".

But if we took that view then we would never see any innovation, and society would risk standing still.

Harry Warner, one of the studio founding Warner brothers, opined in 1927; "who the hell wants to hear actors talk?" Later that year Al Johnson’s The Jazz Singer – Hollywood’s first talkie - was released and movies changed forever.

But Warner’s comments weren’t as ridiculous in 1927 as they might seem now. Talking movies were an unproven technology and many people thought they would be little more than a passing fad. In contrast, silent movies were a proven winner with large scale audiences. Now there’s only one year-round silent movie cinema that I know of (in LA, and it’s fabulous,) whereas every one horse town has a talking movie cinema.

When we talk about the possibilities for super-fast broadband, we’re not in too dissimilar a position to Warner et al in the late 20s. We’ve already speculated about some of the possible uses of super-fast broadband from HD movie downloads to multi-player gaming, but arguably the real innovation will come about as the technology is embedded and becomes established. Consumers will probably start to do things with the technology we haven’t considered or thought to be niche. This is exactly what’s happened with SMS or many Web 2 applications and will, I’m sure, be equally applicable to a super-fast broadband age.

As they say (repeatedly) in the Field of Dreams, build it and they will come. Who they are, and what they will do with it, of course is another matter altogether…

Comments

[Paul]

Damian, very sensible and forward thinking in my view. We cannot know that the speed proposed is not going to be needed or used. I bet even the humble Sony Walkman was laughed at by some even as they launched the first model.

BUT: Let's be very clear that the kind of speed you are blogging on here does not NEED funding using intrusive technology to deliver behavioural targetised adverts (can I say 'Targetised'?)

Consumers will adopt and pay for the services offered.

Sure, the option to be a consumer who submits to such tracking is ok, but it must be an opt IN. It must be transparent and fully explained. The option to stay out (or actually do nothing at all and thereby not be 'in') is a must. And anyone who has not decided to Opt In should not have their data flowing through the data inspection systems at all.

We must ensure data security for our country as a whole and all individuals here who wish to ensure this.

Like many who have expressed views in this area here, I am astonished by the lack of action taken using our existing laws against companies who ignore the illegality of interception without warrant or consent (i.e. BT WebWise and Phorm)

Good post though!

[Alan]

Why are people keep going on about the speed with fibre optic?

For many people like myself who are having to put up with poor line quality and BT wont lift a finger to fix or install a new line, the real truth is not about 'speed' but about having a stable, reliable and consistant broadband connection, is it not?

Thats why I'm praying for fibre optic, so I can finally surf or do what ever I want online without the fear of suddenly having my connection dropout or worse not having any broadband fullstop......right now I can go for most of the day without any connection which is extremely painful as like anyone else I have things I want or need to do online, right now its sods law whether I can do that or if it will stay that way, so add me to the list of people wanting fibre optic please :)

Alan.