1.14

In this rapidly changing environment, it is difficult to predict exactly how markets will evolve and what need for intervention in public service content will remain. Economic modelling commissioned by Ofcom suggests three main conclusions:

1. Continued evolution in the way audiences consume media will present a range of new opportunities for delivering public service purposes. However, there is a broad range of plausible outcomes for audiences’ future use of different kinds of media, and the level of take-up of innovative interactive and mobile services;
2. Under a wide range of scenarios, the reach and impact of the designated public service linear channels is likely to continue to decline;
3. As media fragment and competition intensifies, the level and mix of investment in UK-originated content is likely to decline, with particular pressure on innovative or risk-taking programming.